Drivers hitting the road this Fourth of July weekend won’t need to break the bank to fill up at the gas pump.
Gas prices are expected to average between $3.10 and $3.15 per gallon nationally this Fourth of July, according to GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices.
That’s down sharply from $3.49 per gallon last year and would represent the cheapest gas for the summer holiday since at least 2021.
If the national average drops below $3.12 per gallon, it would be the lowest Fourth of July price for gas since 2020 during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to GasBuddy.
Muted gas prices represent one of the biggest bright spots in the US economy, which has suffered from softer consumer spending and vast uncertainty caused by the global trade war.
Last month’s Israel-Iran conflict interrupted the trend of cheaper gas prices – but only briefly.
Oil prices skyrocketed after Israel and then the United States launched attacks on Iran, fanning fears of a regional war that could derail the region’s vital energy supplies. Gasoline prices started climbing sharply, threatening to make Fourth of July a much more expensive time to travel by car.
But energy prices have since tumbled as Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire, reducing the risk of a disastrous disruption in the flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. US crude oil settled at $65.11 a barrel on Monday – down sharply from an intraday peak of $79 on June 22.
“The pendulum swung very rapidly,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.
That’s very good news for the many Americans set to travel this holiday weekend.
According to AAA, a record-setting 61.6 million people are expected to travel by car this Fourth of July weekend. That’s up by 2.2%, or 1.3 million people, compared with last year.
Based on the current forecast, Americans are expected to spend about $500 million less on fuel than last Fourth of July, according to GasBuddy.
Gas looks even cheaper from an inflation-adjusted basis.
Americans are making significantly more money, on average, than they did in 2021 or 2020. That means filling up at the pump is swallowing up a smaller and smaller chunk of paychecks.
Consider that inflation-adjusted gasoline prices averaged $3.68 per gallon in June 2021 and $5.43 in June 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s well above today’s prices of around $3.15 to $3.20 a gallon.
Drivers in some US states are enjoying significantly cheaper gas prices compared with last year, including Ohio (56 cents cheaper), Florida (43 cents), Kentucky (42 cents) and Michigan (42 cents), according to AAA.
As always, there’s a risk that gas prices could start climbing again if something else goes wrong in the Middle East, US refineries suffer outages or hurricanes season interrupts energy supplies.
But short of that, analysts say the outlook remains favorable to drivers this summer when it comes to gas prices.
Not only have Israel-Iran fears eased, but OPEC continues to aggressively add more supply, and US oil production remains near record highs.
That’s why GasBuddy says it’s possible gas prices will slip below $3 per gallon nationally by Labor Day weekend.
“There’s limited ability for gas prices to rise above last summer’s levels. All in all, it’s not a bad time to hit the road,” De Haan said.
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