Call it a “chip shortage on steroids.”
That’s how one expert told CNN the auto industry is describing a possible shortage of rare earth elements — minerals that are now center stage in the global trade war. Running low on those minerals could recall the pandemic-era chip shortage that jacked up car prices, used and new, across America.
China has a virtual monopoly on those 17 metallic elements, which are critical components to everyday products from cars to jet engines to electronics like smartphones and flat-screen TVs. They’re even crucial for the contrast dye used in MRI machines and some cancer drugs.
And, recently, China made it even harder to get them: The country introduced a new licensing requirement on the export of the elements in April, effectively slowing the flow of outbound shipments to most of the world, including the United States.
Delegations from the US and China are meeting in London this week to talk about a new trade deal, and rare earths are almost certainly a major part of those discussions.
Right now, US companies have only about two or three months’ worth of supply, according to Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. After that, “industry simply could not manufacture” unless an agreement is reached between the US and China, she told CNN.
President Donald Trump told reporters Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to allow exports of rare earth minerals products to begin.
But even that promise might not be enough for US manufacturers if a new deal only lifts the restrictions temporarily, said Baskaran.
“It makes it extremely difficult for industry to get a reliable read on what the next three months, six months or a year are going to look like,” she said.
Nor might exports flow fast enough compared to past levels.
“Keep in mind that prior to the (Trump-Xi) call, they were beginning to flow out, but not at the pace that allows supply chains to continue without interruptions,” she added.
US companies might soon burn through stockpiled inventory, according to Baskaran.
One auto industry expert, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly, told CNN it is becoming apparent that the auto industry is prepping for widespread shutdowns in the coming months due to rare earth shortages.
It’s something the expert has heard described by people in the industry as “the chip shortage on steroids.”
Four years ago, a shortage of computer chips caused halts in auto production, which fueled record car prices. The limited supply drove most people to pay above sticker price for new cars.
“People think that it’s only EVs (electric vehicles), but it’s not,” the expert told CNN. “It’s in everything in every car. It’s in the motors that run windshield wipers. One supplier I’m talking to said there are sensors in seat belts. I think there’s going to be production disruptions all over the place. China really has our balls in a vise.”
Ford already had to shut down production at the Chicago plant that builds the Explorer for a week, according to Baskaran. Ford would neither confirm nor deny the shutdown was caused by a rare earth shortage.
Reuters, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, reported that suppliers of major American carmakers – including General Motors, Ford and Jeep-maker Stellantis – were granted temporary export licenses for rare earths, but only for a period of up to six months. The companies would not comment on their supplies of the minerals.
With rare earths so critical to important US industries, there are efforts to find replacements, such as other types of magnets and electric motors that don’t use magnets at all, said Roderick Eggert, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and deputy director of the Critical Materials Innovation Hub, a research consortium established by the Department of Energy.
But Eggert said those alternatives all have shortcomings.
“These substitutes come at the cost of performance,” he said. “Motor designs that don’t use magnets at all, those tend to be less efficient.”
He said that the only hope to avoid significant disruptions is that the China and US reach an agreement that will restore the normal flow of rare earths.
“It is in the interest of the Chinese to remain a stable and trusted source for rare earths magnets and other rare earths products,” Eggert said. “Unfortunately, what has happened is that rare earths have gotten caught up in much larger tensions associated with US-China trade negotiations.”
The name rare earths is a bit of a misnomer. The materials are found throughout the Earth’s crust but are difficult and costly to extract and process. China has the only equipment needed to process some of the various elements and currently controls 92% of the global output in the processing stage.
Other countries, including the United States, are rushing to create their own processing capabilities. But that will take months, if not years. Baskaran said more should have been done to prepare for this scenario in advance.
“Of course we should have seen this coming,” she said. “We should have started this 15 years ago.”
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